Posted by: The Dude | January 20, 2009

Barack Obama and Economic Stimulus – Please don’t f**k it up

So…Dubya is gone and Obama is in.  Quite the historic event.  First of all, congrats for running what will ultimately become a case study in successful elections, first of all at the primary level and then at the big dance itself.  Second, boy did it look cold there in DC.  I almost shivered while sitting in my So Cal office in shorts and a golf shirt.  Third, I managed to avoid the drama of web servers crashing under the streaming strain by watching the live NBC broadcast on my LG Voyager via Verizon Wireless’ VCast Mobile TV service.  No interruptions and clear as a bell picture and sound.  Effin’ brilliant service, imho, and I highly recommend both the phone and the service.

Now, on to fixing the country.  As you readers may have figured, The Dude tends to have a more conservative leaning, politically.  A little less so on social issues, but definitely on fiscal issues.  It is painfully obvious that we are in the middle of quite the financial crisis.  Normally, any good fiscal conservative worth his or her salt would simply advocate lowering taxes and letting businesses conduct business, with the idea that the revenue generated by a successful business (sales taxes, payroll taxes, employees buying other stuff and continuing the cycle, etc.) will make things happen and stabilize the economy.  The problem that we face currently is unfortunately a little beyond that simple a focus.  The big problem as I see it is that the financial powers that be are simply too afraid to conduct business.  Look at all the money that’s been poured into the credit and financial markets, as well as the auto industry.  Not a whole lot of results, much less actual business generated.  And the only way I see to create a trend of stability is for “Government” to take the lead on things.

Nobody can deny that the infrastructure in this country needs some serious work.  Water delivery, roads, power/energy, air traffic control, schools, they all need massive amounts of updating.  And coincidentally, all of these things tend to be owned by one governmental agency or another.  So logically the way to kick start things and hire unemployed (or soon to be unemployed) people is for “Government” to start authorizing all of these public works type projects.  Two things, though, are needed to keep fiscal conservatives from having coronaries and actually generate efficient results.

First, government should not hire the employees.  Governments are extremely inefficient.  I know, I’ve both worked for municipal agencies and been a consultant to them for the past 14 years.  Let consultants and contractors hire the workers.  They can do the work more efficiently and at a lower price than the government agencies can.

Second, DO NOT RAISE TAXES TO PAY FOR IT!!  Let’s face a little reality.  We are facing a staggeringly huge national debt.  Even as Obama’s transition team proposed in the previous several weeks, the stimulus package is going to cost a ton.  So we should simply admit to ourselves that the increase in debt will be massive but necessary.  And with that why not again minimize the impact of government inefficiency and cut out a lot of government processing.  Deficit spend!  Seriously.  To balance (so to speak) the books, have the Fed or the Treasury “loan” the money to the various government agencies that need it.  Then let the trickle-down effect go to work.  Say the City of San Diego decides to overhaul its water delivery system (it sure needs it!).  It will be a massive job, requiring a ton of manpower.  Actual workers digging out the pipes, people fabricating the pipes, people designing the water system, people redesigning the road system to accommodate the new water utilities, and so on.  The workers themselves and the construction companies will likely need to purchase tools, equipment, and trucks, thus providing work for people in those industries.  The engineers designing the water and road systems would need to buy new computer systems and maybe lease additional office space, thus providing some stimulation in those areas.  Maybe workers will come in from other areas (it would likely require enough people) and need housing.  They’ll all need food and such at the jobsites, uniforms, communication devices, and who knows what else.  In addition to the direct financial impacts, think about the workers.  Knowing that they’ve got some financial stability, I bet they’ll be more interested in going out for a nice dinner or buying that HD flatscreen plasma.  With all that work, they’ll likely want to take a small vacation here and there, maybe visit SeaWorld or LegoLand.  Maybe they’ll feel confident enough to replace the 6 or 7 year old family car with something new.  Who knows?  But if Obama decides to raise taxes, particularly on the businesses who would do all of this hiring, they may feel that they can’t afford to hire as many people as they otherwise would’ve and wind up being able to pay their employees less due to increased competition for fewer jobs.  And if these workers are earning less than they otherwise might have, maybe they won’t feel secure enough yet to start spending.  If taxes are raised, maybe businesses will decide to hold off on purchasing a new fleet of trucks, because the increased taxes won’t quite make that purchase pencil out, or maybe they’ll hold off on moving to a larger facility.  If the taxes are not increased, it is most likely that more of the economy would be stimulated for the same dollar amount, and ultimately generate more revenue not only for themselves, but for the government agencies to use to pay back the “stimulus loans.”

So President Obama, congratulations and good luck.  You have a helluva task ahead of you, and it certainly won’t be easy.  Expectations are probably unreasonably high, and it’s not likely that any signs of success would be seen in the immediate future.  But success can be had.  You are a very inspirational person, and given the dark mood of the country leading up to your inauguration, that sense of inspiration is a great spark.  If you do it correctly, you can use that spark to really stoke the forging fires of our collective souls.  We’ll be watching.  Don’t f**k it up.


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